Will Apple's Services Momentum Be Blunted by New Epic App Store Ruling?

Core Viewpoint - A federal judge has ruled that Apple can no longer collect commissions on transactions occurring outside the App Store, which poses a significant challenge to its high-margin services business [1][6]. Financial Impact - The immediate financial impact of the ruling is uncertain, but it introduces risks to Apple's commission-based revenue model [2][9]. - Apple's services business reported record revenues of $26.6 billion, growing by 11.6%, although this growth has slowed from 14% in the previous quarter [3][4]. Business Model Changes - The ruling stems from a prior injunction related to the Epic Games lawsuit, which required Apple to allow third-party payment links, thus affecting its ability to charge a 30% commission [6][8]. - Apple estimated that the revenue impact of moving to a no-commission model could range from hundreds of millions to billions, depending on developer adoption rates [8]. Competitive Landscape - The ruling may enable companies like Epic and Spotify to attract Apple customers to transact directly, potentially diminishing Apple's revenue from the App Store [7][8]. - In 2022, App Store developer billings reached$ 1.1 trillion, with over 90% of that amount going to developers without any commission paid to Apple [8]. Ongoing Legal Challenges - Apple plans to appeal the ruling, indicating that the commission-based model is facing significant uncertainty moving forward [9].