Why Alphabet's Investors Should Root for Its Breakup

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. District Court ruling classifies Alphabet as an illegal monopoly in the digital advertising market, which could have significant implications for the company, particularly since advertising is its main revenue source [1]. Immediate Implications - Alphabet plans to appeal the ruling, making a breakup unlikely in the short term [3]. - The company has previously divested businesses that did not align with its model, indicating a willingness to separate underperforming units [3]. - Digital advertising accounted for 74% of Alphabet's revenue in Q1 2025, highlighting its importance despite management's efforts to diversify revenue streams [4]. Business Structure and Potential Growth - Alphabet consists of various businesses, with Google Cloud contributing 14% of overall revenue in Q1, showing that not all segments are tied to advertising [6]. - Smaller companies may experience faster growth rates compared to larger entities, suggesting that segments like YouTube or Google Network could thrive as independent companies [7]. - Many of Alphabet's businesses do not disclose specific financial results, making it difficult for investors to assess their contributions [8]. Valuation of Subsidiaries - External estimates value Waymo at approximately $45 billion, indicating that it could be a significant independent entity if separated [9]. - Historical breakups, such as Standard Oil and AT&T, have led to the creation of larger entities and increased shareholder value, suggesting a potential benefit for Alphabet's shareholders if a breakup occurs [10][11]. Conclusion on Breakup Potential - While a breakup is not guaranteed, it could ultimately benefit shareholders by allowing them to invest directly in individual businesses like Waymo or CapitalG [13]. - The potential loss of advertising revenue may initially seem detrimental, but the long-term benefits of increased shareholder value from separate entities could outweigh the negatives [14].