Should You Buy, Sell or Hold Fortinet Stock Before Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Fortinet is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, with anticipated revenues between $1.5 billion and$1.56 billion, and non-GAAP earnings per share in the range of 52-54 cents, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some near-term challenges [1][5][21]. Revenue and Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for first-quarter revenues is $1.54 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 13.54$635 million, showing a decline of 4.65% year-over-year, while Asia Pacific and Japan revenues are expected to grow by 2% to $308 million. European, Middle Eastern, and African revenues are projected to decrease by 13.3$600 million [11][12]. Earnings Surprise History - Fortinet has a history of exceeding earnings estimates, with a 23.33% surprise in the last reported quarter and an average surprise of 24.76% over the last four quarters [3]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include SASE and AI-led security, with FortiSASE ARR growing 96% year-over-year and pipeline activity increasing by 90%. Over 70% of large enterprise customers are utilizing Fortinet's SD-WAN, indicating strong future upselling potential [6][10]. - The company is also experiencing a hardware refresh cycle, particularly among large enterprises, which is expected to contribute to growth in the second half of 2025 [7]. Challenges and Market Conditions - Tariff changes and economic uncertainty may limit first-quarter upside, with noted weaknesses in Canada, Latin America, and the U.S. federal space due to policy and budget delays [8][21]. - Integration of recent acquisitions is expected to reduce operating margins by 40 basis points, and infrastructure spending is projected to rise to $80-$100 million, impacting short-term margins [9][21]. Competitive Landscape - Despite fierce competition from companies like Palo Alto Networks, Zscaler, and CrowdStrike, Fortinet's focus on reducing complexity and expanding sales capacity positions it for long-term growth [10][21]. Stock Performance and Valuation - Fortinet's shares have gained 12.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Computer and Technology sector and the S&P 500 index [13]. - The stock is trading at a significant premium, with a Price/Book ratio of approximately 54.66 compared to the industry's 25.36, indicating high growth expectations from investors [17]. Investment Considerations - While Fortinet shows strong product momentum and demand for SASE solutions, investors are advised to maintain a hold stance due to potential near-term pressures from tariffs, budget delays, and competition [21][22].