Coherent Pre-Q3 Earnings: Buy or Sell the Stock Ahead of Results?

Company Overview - Coherent Corp. (COHR) is set to report its third-quarter fiscal 2025 results on May 7, with revenue expectations of $1.4 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 19.1% and earnings per share (EPS) estimated at 86 cents, indicating a 62.3% increase from the previous year [1] - The company has a strong earnings surprise history, having surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the last four quarters with an average surprise of 20.3% [2] Earnings Estimates - Current earnings estimates for Q1 and Q2 are 0.86 and 0.92 respectively, with full-year estimates of 3.47 and 4.28 [2] - There have been no recent changes in analyst estimates, with a slight downward revision of -0.29% for F1 and -0.70% for F2 [2] Market Performance - COHR shares have increased by 23.7% over the past year, outperforming its industry growth of 24.6% and the Zacks S&P 500 composite's 10% growth [6] - The stock is currently trading at a trailing 12-month price-to-earnings ratio of 2.67X, which is higher than the industry average of 1.76X and Alithya Group's 1.28X, but lower than AirJoule Technologies' 7.83X [9] Industry Insights - The telecom segment is expected to drive revenue growth, with a reported 11% year-over-year increase in Q2 fiscal 2025, attributed to strong demand for new products like 100G, 400G, and 800ZR/ZR+ coherent transceivers [5] - The rise in data traffic due to AI workloads is anticipated to boost investments in higher-capacity interconnects, benefiting Coherent's optical transport networks [10] Future Outlook - Management projects that 1.6T transceivers will be a key contributor to revenue in 2025, ensuring growth beyond the current 800G cycle [12] - The demand for high-speed optical transceivers is expected to increase as hyperscalers expand their AI training and inference workloads [11] Investment Considerations - Despite the positive outlook, potential revenue growth may be hindered by delayed AI infrastructure spending and geopolitical risks, particularly between the U.S. and China [13] - The company is viewed as fundamentally strong but carries a premium valuation, suggesting that investors may benefit from holding the stock while waiting for a more favorable entry point [15]