Cleveland-Cliffs to Post Q1 Earnings: What's in Store for the Stock?

Core Viewpoint - Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (CLF) is expected to report first-quarter 2025 results on May 7, with anticipated challenges due to lower year-over-year steel prices despite cost-cutting measures and increased volumes [1][5][9]. Revenue Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CLF's first-quarter consolidated revenues is $4,596.6 million, indicating an 11.6% year-over-year decline [4]. Performance Factors - CLF is likely to face headwinds from weaker steel prices, with benchmark hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices dropping over 40% last year, closing near$ 700 per short ton from $1,200 per short ton at the beginning of 2024 [5][6]. - The average net selling price per net ton of steel products is estimated at$ 986, reflecting a 16.1% year-over-year decrease [8]. Cost Management - The company is expected to benefit from reduced steelmaking unit costs, with a sequential decline of approximately $15 per ton in the fourth quarter of 2024 and an anticipated reduction of about$ 40 per net ton in 2025 compared to 2024 [9]. Volume Growth - CLF is projected to have experienced higher sales volumes in the March quarter, estimated at 4.06 million net tons, suggesting a 3% year-over-year increase, driven by automotive demand and contributions from the Stelco acquisition [10]. Earnings Prediction - The Earnings ESP for CLF is -25.19%, with the consensus estimate indicating a loss of 67 cents for the first quarter, suggesting a low probability of an earnings beat [11][12].