Should You Buy, Hold or Sell Energy Fuels Stock Ahead of Q1 Earnings?

Core Viewpoint - Energy Fuels Inc. is expected to report a significant decline in revenues and incur a loss in its first-quarter 2025 results, with a consensus revenue estimate of $15.20 million, reflecting a 40% decrease from the previous year's$ 25.43 million [1][2]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for earnings is a loss of 5 cents per share, unchanged over the past 60 days, compared to earnings of 2 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2][3]. - Energy Fuels has a trailing four-quarter negative earnings surprise of 2.22%, having beaten estimates once, missed twice, and matched once [4]. Production and Sales - The company is currently producing from three uranium mines and expects to produce between 730,000 to 1,170,000 pounds of contained uranium in 2025, with contract sales anticipated at 200,000 to 300,000 pounds [8]. - In the first quarter of 2024, Energy Fuels sold 300,000 pounds of uranium, generating $25.31 million in revenues at an average realized price of$ 84.38 per pound [10]. - Uranium prices have declined, averaging $66.18 per pound in the January-March 2025 period, down 30% year over year [11]. Market Context - The company has resumed ore transport from its Pinyon mine following a landmark agreement with the Navajo Nation, which is expected to positively impact production rates [9]. - The acquisition of Base Resources is expected to contribute to revenues, although recurring operating expenses and increased headcount costs may weigh on earnings [12][13]. Peer Comparison - Cameco Corporation reported a 24% year-over-year revenue increase to$ 550 million for the first quarter of 2025, while Centrus Energy is expected to incur a loss of 10 cents per share [14][16]. - Energy Fuels' stock has declined 23.2% over the past year, compared to a 29% decline in the industry and a 10% decline in the Zacks Basic Materials sector [18]. Valuation - Energy Fuels is trading at a forward sales multiple of 8.89, significantly higher than the industry average of 2.57, but lower than Uranium Energy's 25.6 [24][25]. - The company maintains a debt-free balance sheet and is ramping up uranium production while advancing its rare earth element capabilities [28]. Investment Outlook - Despite expected lower uranium sales and prices in the upcoming quarter, there are indications of a potential recovery in uranium prices, supported by solid demand fundamentals [31]. - Current investors may consider holding due to long-term prospects, while prospective investors might wait for a more favorable entry point given the premium valuation and anticipated losses [32].