中信证券研究部金属行业首席分析师敖翀：新形势下有色行业发展机遇与风险挑战并存

Group 1 - The new situation presents both opportunities and challenges for the non-ferrous metal industry, with increasing global macroeconomic uncertainty and intensified geopolitical conflicts [1] - The importance of strategic mineral resources is rising, leading to heightened competition among major economies for these resources [1] - Key minerals such as copper, aluminum, lithium, nickel, and gallium are frequently mentioned in national critical mineral lists, indicating their significance in future resource policies [1] Group 2 - High demand from terminal applications is expected to create new opportunities for the metal industry, particularly driven by energy transition [2] - The global shift towards net-zero emissions is projected to significantly increase the demand for key minerals, with aluminum demand expected to rise by approximately 20 million tons and copper by 5 million tons by 2030 [2] - The development of new productive forces, including AI and satellite internet, is anticipated to drive demand for related metals and materials, supporting long-term metal prices [2]