CHINA POWER(02380) 格隆汇· Ge Long Hui·2025-05-28 18:27Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in total power generation of 0.3% for the first four months of the year, with significant growth in wind and solar power generation, while thermal power generation declined due to asset sales [1][2] Group 1: Power Generation Performance - Total power generation for the company in January to April remained stable, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - Wind and solar power generation saw substantial increases of 32.1% and 13.6% respectively [1] - Thermal power generation decreased by 14.2% due to the sale of equity at the end of last year [1] - Hydropower generation experienced a significant drop in April, with a year-on-year decline of 53.3% and a month-on-month decline of 26.5% due to fluctuations in water inflow [1] Group 2: Fuel Costs and Profitability - The price of thermal coal weakened in the second quarter, leading to an expected improvement in the price differential for thermal power generation in the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a 2% higher price differential for thermal power generation than previously expected due to a more than 7% drop in domestic thermal coal prices since the end of March [1] - The fuel cost forecast for the thermal power segment has been reduced by 1% to RMB 0.249 per kilowatt-hour, reflecting an approximate 8% year-on-year decrease [1] Group 3: Financial Adjustments and Valuation - The company has adjusted its 2025 water power utilization hours down by about 1% to reflect weaker generation in April [2] - Following adjustments to the financial model, the profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been increased by 1.0% and 1.4% respectively [2] - The valuation standard for the water power segment has been raised to 1.9 times the 2025 book value, up from 1.5 times, based on the asset injection valuation [2] - The target price for the company has been revised upward to HKD 3.77 from HKD 3.51 based on a segmented valuation approach [2] Group 4: Shareholder Confidence and Dividends - The parent company has increased its stake in the company, indicating confidence in its development, with a total increase of 1% over the past 12 months [2] - The current dividend yield of 6% for 2025 and 7% for 2026 remains attractive to investors despite market fluctuations [2] - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on these factors [2]