招商銀行（03968.HK）技術分析：金融藍籌穩步向上，強勢突破可期

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Bank (03968.HK) maintains a strong technical trend, closing at HKD 49.45 on May 29, 2025, with a slight increase of 0.20%, reinforcing its recent upward channel [1] Technical Analysis - The stock price is currently above key technical support levels, with short-term support between HKD 47.50 and HKD 44.80, and upward resistance at HKD 50.60 and HKD 52.00 [1] - The overall upward probability is at 52%, indicating potential for breaking previous highs, with market sentiment remaining bullish [1] - Moving averages show the stock price is above the 10-day, 30-day, and 60-day averages, which are HKD 49.30, HKD 46.43, and HKD 46.40 respectively, reflecting a standard bullish pattern [1] - Trading volume reached HKD 750 million, indicating strong liquidity and high market participation, which supports steady price increases [1] Technical Indicators - The RSI value is at 66, nearing the overbought zone but not yet overheated, suggesting active buying with room for further upward movement [2] - Other key oscillators like CCI and psychological lines maintain buy ratings, while the stochastic oscillator is in the overbought zone but signals a sell [2] - The MACD remains in positive territory with a buy signal, and the Ichimoku chart shows a clear upward trend, indicating a healthy technical structure [2] - The Bollinger Bands indicate the stock is trading between the upper and middle bands, reflecting a strong consolidation phase with upward breakout potential [2] - The overall technical summary signals a "strong buy" with a strength rating of 17, indicating a very strong upward signal [2] Market Outlook - As a core blue-chip in the financial sector, China Merchants Bank has established a clear and stable upward pattern [3] - A successful breakthrough of the key resistance at HKD 50.60 could lead to rapid advancement towards HKD 52 or higher [3] - As long as the stock does not fall below the critical support level of HKD 47.50, the overall bullish trend will be maintained, making it a potential target for medium-term positioning [3]