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理想汽车-W(2015.HK)一季报点评:利润好于预期 期待纯电新周期
02015LI AUTO(02015) 格隆汇· Ge Long Hui·2025-05-31 01:57

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto reported a revenue of 25.93 billion yuan in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 650 million yuan, up 9.7% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Li Auto achieved a vehicle sales revenue of 24.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%, with an average selling price of 266,000 yuan per vehicle, down 36,000 yuan year-on-year and 3,000 yuan quarter-on-quarter [1][2] - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 20.5%, with a vehicle gross margin of 19.8%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.5 percentage points due to cost reductions and smaller promotional discounts [2] - The company expects Q2 2025 deliveries to be between 123,000 and 128,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 13.3% to 17.9%, with projected revenue of 32.5 billion to 33.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5% to 6.7% [2] Group 2: Product and Market Strategy - Li Auto has established a product lineup of "4 range-extended electric vehicle models + 1 high-voltage pure electric model," covering the market above 200,000 yuan, with a strong new vehicle launch cycle expected in 2025 [3] - The company has optimized its channel structure, with 500 retail centers across 151 cities as of the end of April 2025, and has increased its supercharging stations to 2,267, with 12,340 charging piles [3] - The introduction of new models is anticipated to enhance Li Auto's product matrix and overall sales potential, with high vehicle prices and scale effects expected to maintain good profitability [4] Group 3: Future Outlook - Li Auto's projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 9.09 billion, 12.72 billion, and 17.12 billion yuan (GAAP), with corresponding PE ratios of 23.4X, 16.7X, and 12.4X [4] - Non-GAAP net profits for the same period are expected to be 11.09 billion, 14.72 billion, and 19.12 billion yuan, with PE ratios of 19.2X, 14.4X, and 11.1X [4]