LI AUTO INC.(2015HK)：FACELIFTED MEGA OFFERS MORE CONFIDENCE IN BEVS

Core Viewpoint - Li Auto's 1Q25 net profit met expectations, driven by effective cost reduction efforts, which are expected to support FY25E earnings resilience despite a lowered sales volume forecast [1][2][3] Financial Performance - 1Q25 revenue was 1% lower than previous projections, primarily due to other sales and services [2] - Gross Profit Margin (GPM) in 1Q25 improved by 0.2 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and was 1.3 percentage points higher than forecasted, attributed to cost reduction efforts [2] - R&D and SG&A expenses were largely in line with prior estimates, contributing to consistent operating and net profit [2] Cost Management - Cost control is crucial for FY25E earnings growth, with 1Q25 cost reduction capabilities exceeding prior expectations [3] - FY25 R&D expense guidance has been lowered to RMB11-12 billion, and FY25E SG&A expenses forecast has been reduced by 8% to RMB12.5 billion [3] Product Outlook - The facelifted Mega has received strong customer interest, which may positively influence upcoming BEVs like the i8 and i6 [4][5] - New orders for the facelifted Mega significantly surpassed expectations, indicating potential for future sales growth [5] Sales Forecast - FY25E sales volume forecast has been cut by 8% to 0.58 million units, primarily due to EREVs, but remains in line with the company's broader guidance [5] - FY26E sales volume is projected to increase by 24% year-over-year to 0.72 million units, supported by more BEVs [5] Earnings and Valuation - FY25E revenue forecast has been reduced by 7%, while net profit estimates have been trimmed by 13% to RMB10.4 billion, reflecting lower operating expense assumptions [6] - FY26E net profit is expected to rise by 41% year-over-year to RMB14.6 billion, with continued cost reduction efforts aiding profitability [6] - The target price remains at US$33.00 (or HK$131), based on a revised FY26E P/E of 17x, down from 20x for FY25E [6]