Short-term Outlook - In 2024, the company's performance is under pressure due to factors such as warm winter affecting gas supply, lower-than-expected wind resources, and asset impairment impacting earnings [1] - For 2025, the company has a net profit target of approximately 2.8 billion yuan under the stock incentive plan, with potential earnings growth driven by normalized wind utilization hours and improved asset impairment [1] Mid to Long-term Outlook - The company holds a significant first-mover advantage in the offshore wind sector, having secured 1 million kilowatts out of the 1.8 million kilowatts planned for Hebei Province [2] - The development of the marine economy and supportive policies across multiple provinces are expected to benefit the offshore wind sector, positioning it for high growth [2] - The tight electricity supply-demand balance in Hebei Province suggests optimistic long-term project profitability for offshore wind projects [2] - The company has a robust project reserve, including approximately 3 GW of gas units and 1 GW of offshore wind projects under construction, which supports long-term growth [2] Dividend and Valuation - The company is projected to have a dividend payout ratio of approximately 52.81% in 2024, with a potential dividend yield reaching nearly 9%, enhancing shareholder confidence [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 estimate net profits of 2.4 billion, 3.1 billion, and 3.5 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 46.0%, 26.8%, and 13.3% respectively [3] - The company is assigned a target price of 6.2 HKD, representing an upside of approximately 48% from the current price, with a "strong buy" rating for its Hong Kong stock [3]
新天绿色能源(00956.HK)：河北海风龙头 看好公司增长弹性