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海博思创(688411):把握新能源消纳大机遇 出海开启新成长

Group 1 - The company focuses on the rapid expansion of energy storage systems, having shifted its strategy in 2019 to concentrate on energy storage integration, divesting from other businesses to capitalize on the growing demand for renewable energy consumption [1] - From 2021 to 2024, the company's energy storage system sales are projected to reach 0.7, 2.2, 6.2, and 11.8 GWh, indicating a rapid growth in shipment scale, with a strong domestic market share and breakthroughs in overseas markets expected [1] - The company anticipates revenue of 8.27 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.4% year-on-year increase, with a gross margin of 18.5% and a net margin of 7.9%, significantly outperforming the industry [1] Group 2 - The domestic market is undergoing a transition from policy-driven to market-driven dynamics, with the cancellation of mandatory storage requirements prompting companies to shift from "low-price bidding" to "value creation" [1] - Globally, the demand for energy storage is expected to grow steadily, with projections of new installations reaching approximately 228, 280, and 366 GWh from 2025 to 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 23%, and 31% respectively [2] - The company is leveraging its product and channel advantages to expand both domestically and internationally, establishing partnerships with leading state-owned enterprises and enhancing its presence in overseas markets through collaborations with major international firms [2] Group 3 - As a leading player in the energy storage integration industry, the company is projected to achieve net profits of 889 million, 1.14 billion, and 1.35 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 37.3%, 28.1%, and 18.9% respectively [3] - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the same period are forecasted to be 4.94, 6.32, and 7.52 yuan per share, with a reference valuation of 18x PE for 2025, leading to a reasonable value estimate of 88.90 yuan per share [3]