HTSC(601688) 快讯·2025-06-04 11:00Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market is likely facing a downward trend due to the convergence of three economic cycles, indicating a prolonged period of market retraction ahead [1] Group 1: Economic Cycles - The S&P 500 index is currently in a downward phase of the 42-month cycle (Kitchin cycle) and the 100-month cycle (Juglar cycle), while the 200-month cycle (Kuznets cycle) is at its bottom [1] - Since 2022, the correlation characteristics of global assets have changed, inflation issues have become persistent, and U.S. debt constraints are gradually becoming apparent, suggesting a high probability of entering a Kondratiev down phase [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The market rebound is nearing its end, and it is estimated that there will be a longer period of retraction in the future [1] - Historical instances of multi-cycle downturns often lead to liquidity crises, highlighting the importance of seeking safe-haven assets during such crises as a key focus for asset allocation in the second half of the year [1]