国泰海通海外：港股是本轮牛市主战场

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong stocks have significantly outperformed A-shares this year, reflecting the attractiveness of scarce assets in a weak macroeconomic environment, similar to the rise of Hong Kong stocks during the mobile internet wave from 2012 to 2014 [1][3][5] Performance Comparison - Since the beginning of the year, the Hang Seng Index has increased by 19%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 21 percentage points. Key sectors such as pharmaceuticals, technology, and consumer goods have shown even greater gains, with pharmaceuticals outperforming A-shares by 29 percentage points [4][10] - The performance of Hong Kong stocks can be divided into two phases: the first quarter saw a surge in technology stocks driven by AI applications, while the consumer sector has shown strong performance since April, with notable stocks reaching historical highs [4][10] Scarcity of Assets - The outperformance of Hong Kong stocks is attributed to the unique advantages of certain assets, particularly in the context of AI applications and new consumption trends. Scarce assets are concentrated in sectors such as internet, new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and dividends [5][10] - In the internet sector, software services and media account for 55% of the total market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to only 24% in A-shares, highlighting the concentration of major internet players like Tencent and Alibaba in the Hong Kong market [10][11] - The new consumption sector in Hong Kong has over 60% market capitalization in retail and consumer services, while A-shares only account for about 10%. This is driven by the presence of major e-commerce players like Meituan and JD.com in Hong Kong [11] - In the pharmaceutical sector, biotechnology and medical technology account for 40% of the market capitalization in Hong Kong, compared to 24% in A-shares, indicating a higher level of innovation in Hong Kong stocks [12] Future Outlook - The recovery of the fundamental and funding environment is expected to drive further upward movement in Hong Kong stocks. Positive factors are accumulating, including a more proactive policy stance and increased foreign investment in Chinese assets [21][22] - The Hang Seng Technology Index is particularly noteworthy, with a current PE ratio of 20.7, indicating a favorable valuation compared to global standards. This sector is expected to benefit from the ongoing AI-driven industrial transformation [22]