机构：申万宏源研究 研究员：袁豪/陈鹏 投资分析意见：经纪业务收入增长靓眼，多元赛道利润率稳步修复，维持"买入"评级。 贝壳深耕经纪赛道、多次开创行业先例。平台壁垒深铸，重塑经纪底层框架、锁定人房资源，平台赋能 具备全流程管控闭环；同时家装、租赁、贝好家有望成第二增长曲线；未来凭借流量优势通过大数据挖 掘客户需求，有望更广维度扩展业务版图。考虑到公司经纪业务费率短期波动，我们维持25-27 年归母 净利润预测值分别为62、75、91 亿元，现价对应25/26 年PE 分别为26、22 倍；维持25-27 年Non-GAAP 净利润预测值分别为90、103、118 亿元，对应25/26 年PE（Non-GAAP 业绩）分别为18、16 倍。考虑 到公司经纪业务市占率持续提升，家装家居、房屋租赁业务未来放量可期，公司当前估值仍具备优势， 维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：地产景气度下行、公司核心骨干变动。 25Q1 公司活跃门店数量55,210 家，同比+29.6%；活跃经纪人49.1 万名，同比+23.0%；门店及经纪人的 增加也将持续转化为业务规模提升，后续市占率有望持续提升。 25Q1 家装家居、房屋租赁收入同 ...

机构：东吴证券 研究员：房诚琦 家装业务稳步发展，贡献利润率逐步提升。2025Q1 公司家装业务收入稳健增长，贡献利润率同比提升 2.0pct 至32.6%，客户体验改善和效率提升初见成效。 盈利预测与投资评级：公司作为国内的经纪行业产业互联网龙头，随着未来二手房换手率以及新房中介 渗透率的不断提高，叠加协同优势下家装业务赛道的发展，未来业绩具备提升空间。我们基本维持公司 2025-2027 年经调整后净利润为97.0/116.2/136.2 亿元，对应的EPS 为1.83 元/2.36 元/2.91 元，对应的经 调整后PE 分别为16.3X/14.4X/12.3X，维持"买入"评级 风险提示：房地产行业景气度持续下行风险；新房市场中介渗透率的提升低于预期；行业竞争激烈程度 超预期；佣金率变化超预期。 +20.0%/+64.2%/+22.3%/+93.8%/-50.0%。公司营收大幅增长而毛利率下滑拖累业绩，公司毛利率同比下 降4.5pct 至20.7%，下滑的主要原因为： 1）贡献利润率相对较高的存量房业务收入占比下降；2）固定薪酬成本占存量房业务收入的比例提高。 费用率方面，公司销售费率/管理费率同比分 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,345 points, with investors considering the index's strength if it holds between 22,800 and 23,000 points. The past three days showed a volatility of 3%, making it challenging for derivative investors due to the lack of clear direction. The index is in a balanced state from April 23 to 30, with no significant change in the upward trend, although technical signals are not as strong as before. The support level is at 22,400 points, and the resistance level is at 23,800 points [1]. Group 2: Company Analysis - NetEase (09999) closed at 190 HKD, with strong buying signals indicated by 18 buy signals and only 2 sell signals. The stock has broken through the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, with the next resistance level at 213.9 HKD [3]. - Alibaba (09988) closed at 123.4 HKD, showing a weaker performance with a significant drop. However, it has not yet breached the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 118.9 HKD. The support level is at 115 HKD, with a total of 14 buy signals and 6 sell signals, leaning towards a bullish outlook [5]. - China Mobile (00941) closed at 85.8 HKD, with a positive trend as it broke through the daily chart's top. The closing price is just above the top, indicating further upward potential. The resistance levels are at 87.5 HKD and 87 HKD [8]. - CanSino Biologics (9926) closed at 83.5 HKD, having fallen from 105 HKD. The stock remains below the Bollinger Bands, with 9 sell signals despite a primary buy signal. Key support levels are at 73.4 HKD and 75.8 HKD [11]. - Meituan (03690) closed at 131.4 HKD, with concerns about maintaining the 130 HKD level. The stock is on a downward trend, with support levels at 124.5 HKD and 126 HKD [14].

Revenue Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 301.1 billion yuan in the quarter, a year-on-year increase of 16% [1] - JD Retail revenue was 263.8 billion yuan, also up 16% year-on-year, with self-operated business revenue growing by 16% [1] - The mobile phone category benefited from subsidies, leading to a 17% year-on-year increase, while daily necessities grew by 15% [1] - The number of purchasing users increased for six consecutive quarters, with a growth rate accelerating to over 20% in the first quarter, becoming a key factor for revenue growth [1] - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, up 12% year-on-year, and new business revenue was 5.8 billion yuan, growing 18% year-on-year, driven by the rapid growth of the Jingxi business [1] Profitability Analysis - The company's non-GAAP net profit was 12.8 billion yuan, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 4.2% [2] - Retail business operating profit margin (OPM) was 4.9%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year, mainly due to improved gross margins [2] - Logistics business OPM was 0.3%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to increased short-term investments in logistics infrastructure and personnel [2] - New business OPM was -23%, a year-on-year decline of 4 percentage points, primarily due to increased losses from the Jingxi business [2] AI Integration and Shareholder Returns - The company is widely applying AI technology across retail and supply chain operations, optimizing various processes such as search recommendations and advertising algorithms [3] - Since 2025, the company has repurchased approximately 8.07 million shares, totaling about 1.5 billion USD, representing 2.8% of the circulating shares as of December 31, 2024 [3] Investment Outlook - The retail business continues to grow due to subsidies and improved operational efficiency, enhancing gross margins [3] - However, increased investment in the food delivery business is expected to impact profitability, leading to adjustments in revenue and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [3] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 1,307.5 billion, 1,400.4 billion, and 1,486.9 billion yuan, with net profit estimates revised to 45.2 billion, 52.1 billion, and 57 billion yuan respectively [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong Q1 2025 performance with revenue of 7.356 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 8.7%, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 7.275 billion yuan [1] Revenue Breakdown - Online music service revenue reached 5.804 billion yuan, up 15.9% year-over-year, exceeding Bloomberg's estimate of 5.797 billion yuan [1] - Subscription revenue contributed 4.22 billion yuan, a 16.6% increase year-over-year, also above the expected 4.174 billion yuan [1] - The number of paying users grew to 123 million, an 8.3% increase year-over-year, with the payment rate rising to 22.1%, up 2.5 percentage points [1] - Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) reached 11.4 yuan, a 7.5% year-over-year increase, benefiting from the growth of SVIP and reduced promotional activities [1] - Non-subscription revenue was 1.58 billion yuan, up 14.2% year-over-year, driven by growth in advertising revenue and income from artist-related activities and live performances [1] Social Entertainment and Other Services - Revenue from social entertainment and other services was 1.552 billion yuan, down 11.9% year-over-year, but still above the expected 1.478 billion yuan, mainly due to adjustments in live interaction features and stricter compliance procedures [2] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 44.1%, a 3.1 percentage point increase year-over-year, supported by growth in music subscription and advertising revenues, particularly from the SVIP segment and increased original content [2] - The company achieved a net profit of 4.291 billion yuan, a significant year-over-year increase of 201.8%, primarily due to the acquisition of a 2% stake in Universal Music Group (UMG) through an associate, which contributed 2.37 billion yuan to the profit [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q1 was 2.124 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 24.6% [2] Future Outlook - The company forecasts total revenue for 2025-2027 to be 31.4 billion yuan, 34.2 billion yuan, and 36.9 billion yuan, with Non-GAAP net profits of 8.8 billion yuan, 10.3 billion yuan, and 11.8 billion yuan, corresponding to PE ratios of 21.29x, 18.22x, and 15.87x respectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong Q1 2025 performance, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations in revenue and adjusted net profit, driven by user experience focus, content ecosystem development, and government subsidy policies [1][3]. Financial Performance - Q1 2025 revenue reached 301.1 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 16% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 13% [1]. - Gross profit was 47.8 billion yuan, up 20% year-over-year and down 10% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - Operating profit stood at 10.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 37% year-over-year increase and a 24% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Net profit was 11.3 billion yuan, a 53% year-over-year increase and a 4% quarter-over-quarter increase [1]. - Non-GAAP net profit reached 12.8 billion yuan, up 43% year-over-year and 13% quarter-over-quarter [1]. User Engagement and Growth - The platform achieved double-digit year-over-year growth in active users for six consecutive quarters, with growth exceeding 20% [2]. - The number of third-party merchant transaction users also saw double-digit year-over-year growth [2]. Retail Performance - JD Retail revenue grew 16% year-over-year to 263.8 billion yuan, with an operating profit margin increase of 0.8 percentage points to 4.9% [3]. - Revenue from 1P electronic products increased by 17% to 144.3 billion yuan, while 1P daily necessities revenue grew by 15% to 98 billion yuan [3]. - The growth was supported by a stable recovery in consumer spending and effective marketing collaborations with brands like Xiaomi [3]. Logistics Performance - JD Logistics revenue reached 47 billion yuan, an 11% year-over-year increase but a 10% quarter-over-quarter decrease [4]. - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 23.2 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-over-year, with the number of external integrated supply chain customers reaching 63,000, a 13.1% increase [4]. New Business Initiatives - New business revenue, including food delivery, amounted to 5.8 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.3 billion yuan [4]. - The management emphasized focusing on user and merchant experience, business scale, and ROI for the food delivery service [4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upward to 1,286.6 billion yuan, 1,371.3 billion yuan, and 1,449.6 billion yuan respectively [4]. - Net profit forecasts have been adjusted downward to 34 billion yuan, 45.4 billion yuan, and 52.6 billion yuan for the same period [4]. - The target market capitalization for JD Group is set at 592.2 billion yuan, with a target price of 186 yuan per share [4].

Core Viewpoint - Geely Auto plans to acquire all issued shares of Zeekr at a suggested purchase price of $2.57 per share or $25.66 per American Depositary Share, aiming for full integration of Zeekr as a wholly-owned subsidiary [1][2] Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition price represents a premium of approximately 13.6% over the last trading day closing price of Zeekr's American Depositary Shares on the NYSE and a 20% premium over the volume-weighted average price for the last 30 trading days [1] - Geely currently holds about 65.7% of Zeekr's shares, and upon completion of the transaction, Zeekr will be fully merged into Geely Auto [1] Group 2: Strategic Implications - This acquisition is seen as a further implementation of the "Taizhou Declaration," which aims to consolidate brands under Geely Auto, enhancing brand positioning and internal resource integration [2] - Full ownership of Zeekr is expected to improve Geely's profitability, as Zeekr has shown continuous improvement in earnings, with a reported profit of 150 million yuan in Q4 2024 [2] Group 3: Product Strategy and Innovation - Geely Auto is set to launch 10 new energy models in 2025, including 5 new models and several facelifts under the Geely brand, alongside new models from Zeekr and Lynk & Co [3] - The company is focusing on electrification and intelligence, with significant advancements in smart driving capabilities expected across its new and updated models [3][4] Group 4: Financial Outlook - The new GEA architecture supports the upcoming product cycle, with a solid foundation in fuel vehicles and innovative overseas expansion strategies [4] - Geely Auto's net profit for 2025 is projected to be 16.1 billion yuan, with a corresponding PE ratio of 9.8X, indicating strong profitability potential [4]

内容概况：汽车内饰是决定汽车品牌形象的重要因素之一。进入智能汽车时代，汽车逐渐成为人们继 家、办公室之外的第三空间的趋势，因此，用户对人车交互的要求愈发严苛，汽车内饰设计在一定程度 上定义了汽车的品牌文化，车企也通过内饰来划分与吸引消费群体，车辆内饰已成为消费者购车时候的 重要考量因素之一。近年来，随着汽车市场的蓬勃发展，汽车市场对内饰产品的综合要求越来越高，汽 车内饰行业的市场规模也随之快速增长。数据显示，2024年中国汽车内饰行业市场规模约为1383.18亿 元。未来，随着消费结构逐渐升级，消费者对汽车内饰的要求逐渐提升，将推动行业向舒适化、个性化 方向发展。为了满足市场需求，汽车内饰企业需要不断提升创新和研发能力，开发出更多具有创新性、 美观性、高质量的产品。 相关上市企业：继峰股份（603997）、上海沿浦（605128）、金杯汽车（600609）、天成自控 （603085）、香山股份（002870）、新泉股份（603179）、一汽富维（600742）、常熟汽饰 （603035）、宁波华翔（002048）、双林股份（300100）、拓普集团（601689）、申达股份（600626） 等。 相关企业：延 ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported Q1 retail sales growth in its mainland shopping centers, with Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui, Beijing Sanlitun Taikoo Li, and Shanghai Qiantan Taikoo Li showing increases of 10.1%, 6%, and 1.5% year-on-year respectively [1] - Retail sales in Chengdu Taikoo Li, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui, and Beijing Yintai Center declined by 2.9%, 2.5%, and 0.4% year-on-year, but the decline was significantly narrower compared to 2024 [1] - The improvement in retail sales is attributed to the introduction of more luxury brands following renovations completed at the beginning of 2025, particularly benefiting Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui [1] Group 2: Market Trends - Hong Kong shopping centers maintained full occupancy with a slight improvement in retail sales growth, with Taikoo City Centre, Taikoo Place, and Citygate Outlets showing year-on-year growth rates of +2.9%, -5%, and -5.8% respectively [2] - The overall rental rate for Hong Kong office buildings remained under pressure due to market oversupply, with a Q1 occupancy rate of 89%, consistent with the end of 2024 [2] - In mainland office projects, Guangzhou Taikoo Hui and Beijing Yintai Center saw occupancy rates increase by 1 percentage point to 91% and 84% respectively, while Shanghai Xinya Taikoo Hui's rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 94% [2] Group 3: Investment Outlook - The company is characterized as a commercial real estate firm that generates stable cash flow through holding assets with a competitive edge [3] - Q1 performance in mainland shopping centers aligns with expectations, driven by the company's strong leasing and renovation capabilities [3] - Projected net profit growth for the company is 449%, 54%, and 37% for the years 2025 to 2027, with a consistent annual dividend growth of 5% [3]

Group 1 - Company plans to invest $4 million in Japan to build an automated resin lens production line, expected to be operational by July 31, 2025, with a production capacity increase of 20% compared to existing facilities [1] - The new factory will help mitigate potential tariff risks, as 13% of the company's revenue comes from the U.S. market, allowing direct shipments to the U.S. post-construction [1] - The factory's location in Japan is expected to enhance service speed for Asia-Pacific customers, with significant revenue growth in the region [1] Group 2 - The U.S. resin lens market is relatively stable, with high channel markup, indicating low sensitivity to tariff-induced price increases, thus minimizing the impact of tariffs on the U.S. market [2] - The company is leveraging both its own brand and ODM partnerships to drive growth, with plans to replicate successful models domestically [2] - The company is actively collaborating with leading 3C brands in the smart glasses sector, indicating strong growth potential [3] Group 3 - Projected net profits for the company are estimated at 540 million, 670 million, and 840 million yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding PE ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [3] - The target price is set at 40.5 HKD, maintaining a "strong buy" rating based on DCF valuation [3]