大家乐集团：在疲弱的宏观下获得市场份额

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Cafe De Coral (341 HK) despite lowering the target price to HKD 11.15 from HKD 14.82, reflecting a potential upside of 28.4% from the current price of HKD 8.68 [2][6][10]. Core Insights - Cafe De Coral has shown resilience in a weak macroeconomic environment, outperforming the industry with a sales growth of 8% year-on-year in FY24, reaching HKD 8.69 billion, although slightly below the estimated 10% [2][6]. - The company’s net profit surged by 200% year-on-year to HKD 333.2 million, attributed to accelerated same-store sales growth (SSSG), significant gross profit margin expansion, stable labor costs, and limited rent increases [6][14]. - The report expresses cautious optimism regarding the new management team and the company's defensive nature, alongside an attractive dividend yield [2][6]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for FY25E are set at HKD 9.06 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.3%, and expected to reach HKD 10.4 billion by FY27E [3][14]. - The operating profit is forecasted to increase from HKD 452.8 million in FY24 to HKD 568.7 million in FY25E, with net profit expected to rise from HKD 333.2 million to HKD 384.6 million in the same period [3][14]. - The report anticipates a slight decline in profit margins due to potential operational leverage challenges and the need for discounts to drive customer traffic [2][6]. Market Performance - The report highlights that the Hong Kong market's recovery has been slower than expected, with the SSS recovery rate projected at 88% for FY24, reflecting resilience in the fast-food segment [2][6]. - In mainland China, sales grew by 15% year-on-year in FY24, driven by an impressive SSSG of 11% and a 12% increase in store count, with expectations for further growth in FY25E [2][6]. Store Expansion Plans - Cafe De Coral plans to maintain its store expansion strategy, with a net opening of 4 stores in Hong Kong and 18 in mainland China in FY24, aligning with previous guidance [6][14]. - The company aims to open approximately 5 to 10 new stores in Hong Kong and 20 in mainland China in FY25E, indicating a commitment to growth despite macroeconomic challenges [6][14].