神火股份：煤、铝相继复产，业绩改善可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to see performance improvement as coal and aluminum production resumes [1] - The aluminum segment is anticipated to optimize profitability with rising aluminum prices, while the coal segment faces pressure from declining coal prices [1] - The company is progressing with its integrated layout in the aluminum foil business, with production capacity expected to be released [1] Financial Performance Summary - In 2023, the company reported operating revenue of 37.625 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.89%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.905 billion yuan, down 22.07% [1][2] - For Q1 2024, the operating revenue was 8.223 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.57% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.091 billion yuan, down 19.47% [1] - The company’s aluminum revenue in 2023 was 25.294 billion yuan, down 10.49% year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in aluminum prices [1][2] - The coal revenue for 2023 was 8.012 billion yuan, down 18.92% year-on-year, attributed to pressure from coal prices [1][2] Future Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 6.303 billion yuan, 6.985 billion yuan, and 7.256 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 7.8, 7.04, and 6.77 [2][4] - The company expects to produce 9.75 million tons of aluminum foil in 2024, up from 8.09 million tons in 2023 [1]