策略深度：狭义低利率时代下的大类资产配置

Group 1 - The report defines the broad low interest rate era, which began in the 1980s, as a result of long-term structural factors such as declining potential economic growth and capital return rates [1][36]. - The narrow low interest rate era is characterized by a significant decline in capital return rates, a weakening of expectations for potential economic growth, and a reduction in the effectiveness of monetary policy [1][40]. - The experience of the United States entering the narrow low interest rate era began in 2007, with a rapid decline in rates from 2007 to 2009, followed by a low interest rate expectation phase from 2009 to 2013, where bonds significantly outperformed equities [1][68]. Group 2 - Japan's narrow low interest rate era began in the early 1990s, with a rapid decline in rates from 1990 to 1997, followed by a low interest rate expectation phase from 1998 to 2022, during which risk assets underperformed compared to overseas assets [1][53]. - The report highlights that during Japan's low interest rate period, risk assets consistently underperformed, while Japanese government bonds outperformed inflation [1][57]. - The report notes that the performance of major assets in Japan during the low interest rate period was significantly weaker than that of overseas risk assets, with a notable recovery in Japanese equities only after the implementation of Abenomics in 2013 [1][78]. Group 3 - The outlook for major assets in China entering the narrow low interest rate era post-2023 indicates a gradual alignment with long-term factors such as population changes, with a focus on the effectiveness of monetary policy remaining intact [1][6]. - The report suggests that while nominal returns in China are low, the actual returns remain favorable, indicating a long-term advantage for equity assets [1][3]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is more focused on the decline in interest rates rather than the effects of monetary easing, with bonds still in a dominant position until the market shifts its focus to the effectiveness of monetary policy in the low interest rate stable phase [1][3].