中国燃气：自由现金流扩大，高股息特征显著

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" [6]. Core Views - The company reported a FY24 revenue of HKD 81.4 billion, a decrease of 11.5% year-on-year, and a core profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 3.97 billion, down 4.3% year-on-year, which was below the forecast of HKD 4.68 billion [1][11]. - The company’s free cash flow increased by 70% year-on-year, supported by a decline in accounts receivable and capital expenditures [1]. - The target price for the company is set at HKD 8.47, based on an 11x FY25 forecast PE, which aligns with the historical average of the company's PE-FTM [12]. Revenue and Profitability - The retail gas volume for FY24 increased by 2.2% year-on-year to 23.5 billion cubic meters, with residential gas volume up by 3.4% and industrial gas volume up by 0.3% [2]. - The retail gas gross margin for FY24 increased by HKD 0.08 per cubic meter to HKD 0.50 per cubic meter, benefiting from the implementation of residential gas pricing policies [2]. - The company’s operating profit margin improved year-on-year, although impairment and exchange losses negatively impacted profitability [1]. Gas Connection and Value-Added Services - The number of new gas connections decreased by 28% year-on-year to 1.66 million in FY24, reflecting a significant drop from historical peaks [3]. - The revenue from value-added services increased by 5.8% year-on-year to HKD 3.65 billion, with operating profit also rising by 5.7% to HKD 1.58 billion [4]. - The total installed capacity for integrated energy reached 221.6 MWh, with a focus on commercial and industrial users [4]. Future Earnings Forecast - The earnings forecast for FY25-27 is adjusted to HKD 4.19 billion, HKD 4.64 billion, and HKD 5.18 billion respectively, with EPS projected at HKD 0.77, HKD 0.85, and HKD 0.95 [1][11]. - The retail gas volume growth rates for FY25-27 have been revised down to 5%, 5%, and 4% respectively [2]. Valuation Metrics - The company’s market capitalization is approximately HKD 38.81 billion, with a closing price of HKD 7.14 as of June 24 [7]. - The PE ratio for FY24 is projected at 12.19, with a PB ratio of 0.72 [5].