中国燃气：现金流大幅改善，高分红高股息提升投资价值

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Gas [4][5]. Core Views - China Gas reported a significant improvement in cash flow, with operating cash flow reaching HKD 11.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. The company proposed a final dividend of HKD 0.35 per share, resulting in an annual dividend of HKD 0.5 per share, maintaining a dividend yield of 7% based on the closing price on June 24 [4][5]. - Despite a decline in net profit, the company's historical cash flow supports high dividends. The net profit decreased primarily due to a 28% drop in new user connections, a 3.4% depreciation of the RMB, and increased financial costs from foreign debt. However, the company's gas sales volume showed positive growth, with a 6.2% year-on-year increase [4][5]. - The retail gas sales volume recovered, with a gross margin improvement. The company sold 41.7 billion cubic meters of gas, with a retail gas gross margin of HKD 0.5 per cubic meter, an increase of HKD 0.08 year-on-year [4][5]. - The connection business faced challenges, but its impact on overall performance is expected to be limited. The number of new residential users decreased by 28%, but the company anticipates a stabilization in this area moving forward [4][5]. - Value-added services and integrated energy solutions are seen as new growth drivers for the company. The value-added business revenue reached HKD 3.655 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2023/24, China Gas achieved operating revenue of HKD 81.41 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was HKD 3.185 billion, down 25.82% [4][5]. - The company’s operating profit for the same period was HKD 11.304 billion, with a gross profit margin improvement noted in gas sales [4][5]. Future Projections - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024/25 and 2025/26 to HKD 4.495 billion and HKD 5.643 billion, respectively, down from previous estimates. The EPS estimates for the same periods are revised to HKD 0.83 and HKD 1.04 [4][5].