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中石化冠德:国内原油码头龙头,聚焦主业重回报

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Sinopec Kantons Holdings Limited (0934.HK) with a target price of HKD 5.33 [3][10]. Core Insights - Sinopec Kantons has shifted focus back to its core business of crude oil terminals and LNG logistics, benefiting from the growth in domestic oil and gas import demand [3][12]. - The company has a strong financial position with healthy cash flow, allowing for consistent shareholder returns and ongoing investments in new projects [3][20]. - The company has divested its natural gas pipeline business to concentrate on crude oil terminals and LNG transportation, enhancing its operational efficiency [3][12][13]. Summary by Sections 1. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected EPS for 2024-2026 is HKD 0.54, 0.56, and 0.59, with growth rates of +3%, +4%, and +6% respectively [7]. - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for oil and gas imports, with a total crude oil handling capacity of 290.9 million tons per year [3][28]. 2. Business Focus and Financial Health - Sinopec Kantons has divested its natural gas pipeline business in 2020, focusing on crude oil terminals and LNG logistics [12][13]. - The company has a low debt ratio of approximately 3.2%, with cash and deposits totaling HKD 58.25 billion, representing 36.3% of total assets [19][20]. - The dividend per share has increased from HKD 0.04 in 2007 to HKD 0.25 in 2023, with a dividend payout ratio of 48% in 2023 [20][21]. 3. Growth in Oil and Gas Imports - China's oil and gas import demand has been growing rapidly, with crude oil imports reaching 56.43 million tons in 2023, a 135.8% increase since 2010 [24][25]. - Sinopec has signed multiple large LNG purchase agreements, enhancing its position in the LNG market [25][27]. 4. Terminal Advantages and Project Contributions - The company operates seven domestic storage terminal companies, holding over half of the national VLCC crude oil berths, with a total of 38 berths [3][28]. - The Ma Wan Chau terminal upgrade project is expected to enhance business volume and profitability [35]. - The company has eight LNG vessels and is involved in several LNG transportation projects, ensuring stable revenue contributions [36].