Milkground(600882) 华西证券·2024-06-30 10:02Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" to the company, with a target price based on the latest closing price of 12.47 CNY, corresponding to a P/E ratio of 51/36/27 for the years 2024-2026 [31][35]. Core Insights - The company plans to acquire 100% equity of Mengniu Cheese from its controlling shareholder for approximately 448 million CNY, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [2][32]. - The integration of Mengniu Cheese is anticipated to create better scale effects, leading to improved revenue and performance synergies, particularly in the cheese market, which has significant growth potential in China [4][5]. - The company has launched new products, including cheese sticks and mousse cheese cups, and aims to expand its consumer base from children to adults, enhancing its second growth curve through innovative cheese products [17][35]. Summary by Sections Acquisition Details - The acquisition cost for Mengniu Cheese is approximately 448 million CNY, with the net asset value of Mengniu Cheese at 438 million CNY, indicating a reasonable price-to-book ratio of 1x [32]. - The acquisition is expected to accelerate domestic cheese production and R&D, reducing reliance on imported raw materials [32]. Financial Performance - The company experienced a revenue decline of 16.2% in 2023 but is projected to recover with a revenue growth of 28.3% in 2024, reaching 5.197 billion CNY [19][21]. - The net profit is expected to improve significantly, with a forecasted increase of 92.7% in 2024, resulting in a net profit of 122 million CNY [19][21]. Market Position and Strategy - The company maintains a leading market share in the cheese retail market, with its cheese sticks being a major revenue contributor [17]. - The focus on B-end catering channels is expected to enhance brand recognition and product influence, particularly in the restaurant and baking sectors [32]. Future Outlook - The report expresses optimism about the company's long-term development prospects, driven by continuous innovation and market expansion in the cheese sector [5][35].