高盛：美光科技需求和供应控制驱动2025年超预期盈利能力；2024财年第三季度

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Micron Technology Inc. with an updated 12-month price target of $158, reflecting a potential upside of 21$131 [20]. Core Insights - Micron's strong FY3Q results exceeded market expectations, with revenue of $6.8 billion, representing a 14$425 million in FY3Q, with forecasts of $0.8 billion,$3.6 billion, and $6.2 billion for CY2024, CY2025, and CY2026, respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - FY3Q revenue was$6.8 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 2%, with DRAM revenue of $4.7 billion accounting for 69$0.62, surpassing both Goldman Sachs estimates and street expectations [6][7]. - The company guided FY4Q revenue to be $7.6 billion, which is 3% below Goldman Sachs estimates [6]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights multiple AI-related demand drivers, with expectations that a significant portion of PCs and smartphones will become AI-enabled, leading to increased DRAM content [9]. - Micron's enterprise SSD shipments have tripled, indicating strong demand in the data center segment, which is expected to benefit from AI workloads [9]. Cost Management and Technology - Micron is executing well on its technology roadmap, with expectations for front-end cost reductions in DRAM and NAND in FY2024 [9]. - The company has made significant progress in transitioning to advanced production nodes, with over 80% of DRAM production on 1-alpha and 1-beta nodes [9]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates a material increase in capital expenditures in FY2025, primarily for construction, which may raise investor concerns regarding supply-side discipline [9][20]. - Adjustments to revenue estimates for FY2024/25/26 reflect improved pricing outlooks in NAND, with non-GAAP EPS estimates revised upward [18][19].