Tsingtao Brewery(600600) Guoxin Securities·2024-07-02 00:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qingdao Beer (600600.SH) is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company is expected to face sales pressure in the first half of the year due to weak demand and adverse weather conditions, but it is actively working to fill the sales gap in the second half [2][3]. - The product mix is anticipated to continue optimizing, with an expected increase in average sales price throughout the year [2][3]. - Sales expenses may increase, but this will not alter the trend of improving profitability [2][3]. - The dividend payout ratio is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend, supported by strong cash reserves and operating cash flow [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - The company expects a decline in sales volume in the first half of the year due to multiple factors, including weak demand and high base comparisons from the previous year. However, preparations for the peak sales season from July to September are underway, which may lead to positive year-on-year growth in the second half [3][4]. Product Structure - Despite the overall sales decline, the company is seeing a shift towards higher-end products, with a resilient performance in the 6-10 yuan beer segment. New high-end products have been launched, contributing to the ongoing upgrade of the product structure [3][4]. Cost and Profitability - The company is expected to increase its sales expenses slightly due to enhanced promotional activities and market expansion efforts. However, cost savings from raw materials are likely to support profitability improvements [3][4]. Dividend Policy - The company has undertaken significant capital expenditures for high-end production capacity and facility upgrades in recent years. With a projected decrease in capital expenditures after 2026, the company is expected to enhance its dividend payout ratio due to strong cash flow [3][4].