YADEA(01585) 德邦证券·2024-07-04 05:31Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage on Yadea Holdings (01585.HK) with a "Buy" investment rating [7]. Core Views - The electric two-wheeler industry is expected to maintain stable growth due to rigid demand and expanding consumer base, with Yadea positioned as a leading player benefiting from regulatory changes and market dynamics [3][4]. - Yadea is expanding its overseas market presence, targeting high-growth regions such as Southeast Asia, Europe, and South America, which is anticipated to enhance its growth potential [2][3]. - The company is focusing on vertical integration of its supply chain, particularly in battery technology, which is expected to improve production efficiency and reduce costs [3][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Yadea Holdings has been a leader in the electric two-wheeler industry for over 20 years, consistently ranking first in global sales since 2017 [4][14]. - The company has a robust distribution network in China, with over 40,000 sales points and more than 4,000 distributors [14][15]. - Yadea's revenue and profit have shown steady growth, with a CAGR of 21.26% for revenue and 31.25% for net profit from 2013 to 2023 [4][18]. Market Performance - The electric two-wheeler market is experiencing a "Matthew Effect," where leading companies are gaining market share at the expense of smaller players due to stricter regulations [3][31]. - Yadea's sales volume reached 16.52 million units in 2023, with a focus on high-end products driving revenue growth [4][19]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Yadea are estimated at 376 billion, 422 billion, and 482 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 29 billion, 32 billion, and 37 billion CNY [3][4]. - The company is expected to maintain a stable profit margin, with a projected net profit margin of 7.59% in 2023 [22][24]. Industry Dynamics - The electric two-wheeler industry is characterized by a shift towards compliance and quality, with new regulations expected to benefit established players like Yadea [31][32]. - The demand for electric two-wheelers is driven by urbanization, environmental concerns, and the growth of the delivery service industry, which heavily relies on electric bikes [34].