LI AUTO(02015) 华泰证券·2024-07-09 02:07Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price adjusted to HKD 134.73 [5][8]. Core Insights - The company announced an OTA upgrade to version 6.0, which includes the full rollout of the no-map NOA feature for all AD Max users in July [1]. - Sales forecasts for the company are projected at 490,000, 790,000, and 1,040,000 units for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding revenues of RMB 141.9 billion, RMB 216.9 billion, and RMB 275.2 billion [1]. - The report compares the company with peers such as Tesla, Geely, and BYD, noting an adjusted target price based on a 20x PE for 2025, which is at a discount compared to the average 28x PE of comparable companies [1][8]. Summary by Sections OTA Upgrade and Features - The no-map NOA feature can operate in urban, suburban, and secondary roads, achieving over 99% user adoption since its launch [2]. - The upgrade enhances the vehicle's perception and control capabilities, allowing for smoother navigation and more decisive overtaking maneuvers [2]. Safety Enhancements - The OTA upgrade improves active safety features, including automatic emergency steering (AES) and low-speed automatic emergency braking (AEB), significantly reducing accident risks [3]. - The company reports that its systems have helped avoid 360,000 driving incidents, with an AEB false trigger rate of less than once every 300,000 kilometers [3]. Intelligent Driving Models - The introduction of end-to-end (E2E) and visual language models (VLM) enhances the vehicle's understanding of complex environments and improves driving efficiency [4]. - The VLM model has been deployed on vehicle chips, optimizing reasoning performance by 13 times, which significantly enhances navigation and traffic rule comprehension [4]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company are set to increase from RMB 123.9 billion in 2023 to RMB 275.2 billion by 2026, reflecting a growth rate of 67.67% in 2022 and 173.48% in 2023 [7][12]. - The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of RMB 2.03 billion in 2022 to a profit of RMB 18.86 billion by 2026, with EPS improving from -0.95 to 8.89 over the same period [7][12].