鹏鼎控股：24Q2营收预计同增超30%，AI浪潮下龙头优势凸显

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy-A" [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.44 billion yuan in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.27%. For the first half of 2024, the estimated revenue is 13.13 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 13.79% [2] - The shift towards behavior intelligence in AI applications is anticipated to shorten the replacement cycle of smartphones, thereby driving performance growth. The global smartphone replacement rate is projected to be 23.5% in 2023, with an average annual replacement volume of 275 million units. A reduction in the replacement cycle by six months could increase this number to 311 million units, adding approximately 36.61 million units annually [2] - The company has established a strong market position as a leading supplier of PCB products for mobile and consumer electronics, which is expected to be a significant driver of future growth as industry conditions improve and new products are introduced [2][3] Financial Data and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2026 are 35.15 billion yuan, 39.18 billion yuan, and 43.57 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.6%, 11.5%, and 11.2% respectively. Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 3.83 billion yuan, 4.44 billion yuan, and 4.94 billion yuan for the same years, with growth rates of 16.6%, 15.8%, and 11.4% respectively [5][6] - The company's P/E ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 25.1, 21.7, and 19.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation trend as earnings are expected to grow [6]