Quectel(603236) 群益证券·2024-07-10 07:01Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" rating with a potential upside of at least 35% [6]. Core Views - The Internet of Things (IoT) industry is showing significant recovery, with the inventory destocking phase over and global downstream demand gradually recovering, particularly in automotive and AIoT scenarios. The company, as a leading IoT module provider, is expected to benefit significantly from this recovery [4]. - The company's net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are projected at 598 million, 721 million, and 878 million RMB, representing year-over-year growth rates of +560%, +20%, and +22% respectively. The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 2.26, 2.72, and 3.2 RMB, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 20, 16, and 13 [5][17]. - The company has secured significant overseas orders in the automotive sector, which are expected to enhance performance starting in 2026, with total sales estimated between 742 million and 1.309 billion USD over the project's lifecycle [10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company operates in the telecommunications sector, with a current A-share price of 44.26 RMB and a market capitalization of 11.71 billion RMB. The stock has seen a 12-month high of 63.39 RMB and a low of 29.71 RMB [1]. Financial Performance - In Q2, the company achieved a record revenue of 4.284 billion RMB, a 27% year-over-year increase, and a net profit of approximately 145 million RMB, reflecting a 640% increase year-over-year and a 165% increase quarter-over-quarter. The net profit margin improved to 3.4%, up 2.8 percentage points year-over-year [9]. Market Trends - The global IoT module shipment volume declined by 2% in 2023 due to reduced demand, but is expected to recover in the second half of 2024 as inventory levels normalize and demand from sectors like smart meters, POS systems, and automotive increases. A significant market growth is anticipated by 2025 with the application of 5G technologies [4]. Product Portfolio - The company's product mix is heavily weighted towards wireless communication modules, accounting for 98.67% of its offerings, with the remaining 1.33% from other products [1]. Future Outlook - The company is well-positioned to leverage advancements in AIoT technology, with ongoing developments in edge computing and AI applications, which are expected to drive new growth opportunities [16].