Milkground(600882) 华鑫证券·2024-07-10 23:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][10]. Core Insights - The company's profitability continues to improve, with a significant enhancement in its product matrix. The cost side is being optimized, leading to a noticeable increase in profitability. The company is actively launching new cheese snack products while solidifying its core cheese stick offerings. It is expected that revenue will show steady growth in Q2 2024, supported by an expansion of distribution channels and consumer cultivation efforts [4][5][10]. - The company is set to consolidate with Mengniu Dairy's cheese business, which has a solid B-end operation and strong channel resources. This integration is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and achieve a turnaround to profitability by the end of the year [5][10][29]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts a significant increase in net profit for H1 2024, estimated between 65 to 90 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 128% to 215%. The net profit for Q2 2024 is expected to be between 24 to 49 million yuan, marking a substantial turnaround from a loss in the same period last year [29]. - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: 2023A at 4,049 million yuan, 2024E at 4,804 million yuan (growth rate of 18.7%), 2025E at 5,611 million yuan (growth rate of 16.8%), and 2026E at 6,408 million yuan (growth rate of 14.2%) [12]. Earnings Forecast - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for the years 2024 to 2026 are projected at 0.24 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.51 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 53, 35, and 25 times [10][12]. Market Position - The company is recognized as a leading player in the cheese sector, focusing on expanding its range of ambient cheese stick products to capture new market segments. The integration with Mengniu Dairy is expected to enhance business synergy and operational efficiency, further improving profitability as production capacity ramps up and cost control measures take effect [10][29].