Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Group is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][6]. Core Views - The report anticipates steady performance in e-commerce business with notable profit growth, projecting a revenue increase of 1% year-on-year for Q2 2024, reaching CNY 290.9 billion. The Non-GAAP net profit margin is expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year to 3.4% [2][3][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - For Q2 2024, JD Group's revenue is projected at CNY 290.9 billion, reflecting a 1% year-on-year growth. The retail revenue growth is also expected to be 1%, with a two-year CAGR of 4%. The report highlights a decline in the sales of electronic products while the supermarket category shows signs of recovery with high single-digit growth [2][3][4]. - The report estimates that JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new business segments will see revenue growth rates of 1%, 10%, and 42% respectively for Q2 2024 [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be CNY 37.2 billion, with a 16% year-on-year increase, driven by disciplined spending and improved gross margins [2][6]. Adjustments to Forecasts - The revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 have been revised down to CNY 1,151.2 billion, CNY 1,224.3 billion, and CNY 1,305.3 billion, reflecting adjustments of -1.4%, -1.9%, and -2.8% respectively. This is primarily due to limited government support for trade-in programs and weak growth in the electronic category [2][6]. - Conversely, the adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period have been increased to CNY 37.2 billion, CNY 41.4 billion, and CNY 44.8 billion, with adjustments of 2.2%, 0.6%, and 0.1% respectively, attributed to controlled spending and continuous gross margin improvement [2][6]. Target Price and Shareholder Returns - The target price for JD Group is maintained at HKD 162-194, indicating a potential upside of 45%-73% from the current levels. The report notes that the total shareholder return from dividends and buybacks in 2023 is approximately 4% [2][6].
京东集团-SW：2024Q2前瞻：料电商业务表现稳健，利润增长亮眼