创新新材：铝合金龙头有望充分受益于苹果AI引领的硬件创新周期

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating, assigning a target price of 9.2 CNY per share, based on a 20X PE multiple for 2025, implying a market cap of 40 billion CNY [2][49] Core Views - The company is a leading aluminum alloy processing enterprise, benefiting from Apple's AI-driven hardware innovation cycle, particularly in the 3C consumer electronics sector [1][2] - The company is a core supplier of aluminum alloy materials to Apple, with deep collaboration in recycled aluminum and material R&D, positioning it to benefit from Apple's AI-driven innovation [2][35] - The company is expanding its production capacity both domestically and internationally, which is expected to drive future revenue and profit growth [1][28] Company Overview - The company is a global leader in aluminum alloy materials, with the largest production and R&D base for aluminum alloy materials, holding the top market share in aluminum alloy round ingots globally [1][10] - The company operates across multiple regions in China and internationally, including Vietnam and Mexico, with a diverse product portfolio covering 3C consumer electronics, automotive lightweighting, and more [1][10] - The company successfully went public in 2022 through a reverse merger with Hualian Supermarket, marking a new phase of development [10] Capacity Expansion - The company is expanding its production capacity with projects such as the 80,000-ton high-strength aluminum alloy material project and the 120,000-ton lightweight high-strength alloy material project in Yunnan [1][28] - The company is also investing in new projects in Vietnam, including a 100,000-ton 3C consumer electronics profile project and a 320,000-ton new energy vehicle lightweight aluminum alloy material project [1][28] - By 2024, the company plans to complete the installation of 14 intelligent recycled aluminum recycling production lines, with an annual processing capacity of 2.05 million tons, further enhancing profitability [2][28] Apple Collaboration - The company is a key supplier of aluminum alloy materials to Apple, providing materials for products such as laptops, tablets, and smartphones, and is expected to benefit from increased aluminum usage in Apple's AI-driven hardware innovation [1][2][35] - The company has been deeply involved in Apple's recycled aluminum closed-loop recycling technology since 2017, with a leading position in recycled aluminum processing [2][39] - The company has signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Foxconn Industrial Internet (FII) to deepen collaboration in 3C consumer electronics profiles and recycled aluminum [2][39] Automotive Lightweighting - The company is actively expanding into the automotive lightweighting sector, partnering with leading automotive brands such as BYD, CATL, Xiaomi, Li Auto, Mercedes-Benz, BMW, and Audi [1][45] - The company has entered into a joint venture with global heat exchanger rolled aluminum leader Gränges to develop a 320,000-ton new energy vehicle lightweight aluminum alloy material project in Yunnan [46] - The company is expected to benefit from the increasing use of aluminum in new energy vehicles, with aluminum usage per vehicle projected to rise from 250kg in 2025 to 350kg in 2030 [1][41] Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 87.0/97.35/107.5 billion CNY in 2024/2025/2026, with net profits attributable to the parent company of 1.4/2.0/2.6 billion CNY [2][47] - Key assumptions include growth in sales volumes and unit gross profits across its product lines, including aluminum rods, profiles, plates, and aluminum wire and cable [47][48] Valuation - The report values the company at a 20X PE multiple for 2025, based on its high growth potential from new capacity and its position as a core supplier to Apple, implying a target price of 9.2 CNY per share [2][49] - Comparable companies in the aluminum processing industry, such as DingSheng New Materials, Mingtai Aluminum, and Furong Technology, trade at an average 14X PE for 2025 [49][50]