Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is Neutral, with a target price adjusted from HKD 10.10 to HKD 9.80, reflecting a potential upside of 15.6% from the current price of HKD 8.48 [2][13]. Core Insights - The report indicates a downward adjustment in revenue growth expectations for Q2 2024 to RMB 43.87 billion, a 7% year-on-year increase, primarily due to weak demand in the large item sector and a focus on managing standard item pricing [1][3]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 1.2 billion for Q2 2024, representing a 45% year-on-year increase, with a profit margin of 2.7%, better than the previous forecast of 2.3% [1][10]. - The company is enhancing its warehousing capabilities in key industrial zones and deepening partnerships with brands like Xiaomi and Miniso, while also expanding its logistics services in regions like Hong Kong and Europe [1][3]. Revenue and Profitability - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 8%, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 4.4 billion, corresponding to a profit margin of 2.4% [1][3]. - The breakdown of revenue shows internal revenue at RMB 13.54 billion and external revenue at RMB 30.34 billion for Q2 2024, with external revenue accounting for 69% of total revenue [3][14]. - The gross profit margin is expected to improve to 9.4% in Q2 2024, up from 7.7% in Q1 2024 [5][10]. Cost Management - The report highlights effective cost management strategies leading to a reduction in operational costs, with marketing expenses expected to rise by 18% year-on-year, while R&D expenses are projected to remain stable [6][8]. - Adjusted operating profit for Q2 2024 is forecasted at RMB 1.35 billion, with an adjusted operating profit margin of 3.1% [9][10]. Future Outlook - The logistics sector is facing challenges due to overall industry demand, but JD Logistics is focusing on efficiency improvements and strategic partnerships to drive growth [1][2]. - The company is expected to maintain a healthy growth trajectory despite the current market conditions, with a focus on enhancing service capabilities and expanding its logistics network [1][3].
京东物流：2季度预览：受行业需求影响下调收入增速；降本增效见效，上调利润预期