Investment Rating - Outperform [1] Core Views - The company is positioned in a large and steadily growing industry with potential for scale-driven empowerment [3] - The company has transitioned from a "cost-effective product distribution" model to a "brand matrix incubation" model, focusing on brand development and cross-border e-commerce [5] - The company's financial performance shows continuous optimization of product structure, with room for further margin expansion [5] - The industry is characterized by a fragmented competitive landscape dominated by small and medium-sized sellers, with a clear trend towards brandization [3][5] Industry Overview - The global e-commerce penetration rate is steadily increasing, with the online apparel market expected to grow rapidly [21] - The global apparel and footwear market is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.3% from 2024 to 2028, with North America, China, and Western Europe being the core demand markets [35] - The apparel and footwear category accounts for 23.3% of China's cross-border B2C exports, with a stable market share expected in the future [3] - China's apparel industry benefits from significant cluster effects, robust logistics infrastructure, and strong export competitiveness [3][23][24] Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.56 billion yuan in 2023 to 13.83 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.2% [4] - Net profit is projected to increase from 336 million yuan in 2023 to 749 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 28.7% [4] - Gross margin is expected to rise from 45.8% in 2023 to 47.7% in 2026, driven by product structure optimization and brand strategy [4][29] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 13.9% in 2023 to 20.5% in 2026, reflecting improved profitability and operational efficiency [4] Competitive Advantages - The company has successfully incubated multiple brands, including 4 with over 1 billion yuan in sales and more than 20 with over 100 million yuan in sales [40][72] - The company's flexible supply chain and efficient logistics system enable rapid response to market demands, with an average production cycle of 5-10 days [52][55] - The company has developed a comprehensive digital ecosystem, including trend analysis systems, smart procurement systems, and automated advertising systems, to enhance operational efficiency [111][112] Market Strategy - The company focuses on the North American market, which accounted for 89.9% of its revenue in 2023, with Europe showing marginal improvement in 1Q24 [27] - The company leverages Amazon's brand registration program to enhance brand protection and marketing capabilities, driving its brandization strategy [26] - The company has optimized its product portfolio by reducing low-efficiency SKUs and focusing on high-margin categories such as apparel and accessories [41][43] Future Outlook - The company is expected to maintain strong growth in its core apparel and accessories category, with revenue projected to grow at a CAGR of 30% from 2024 to 2026 [95] - The company plans to expand its logistics services, with revenue from this segment expected to grow at a CAGR of 5% from 2024 to 2026 [96] - The company's brand matrix strategy and digital capabilities are expected to drive sustained growth and profitability in the coming years [71][72]
赛维时代：价值链重构，技术驱动品牌出海