KUAISHOU(01024) 国泰君安·2024-07-15 07:31Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to Kuaishou [2][7]. Core Views - The report highlights that Kuaishou's advertising and e-commerce businesses continue to grow under the empowerment of AI, while the live streaming segment faces some adjustment pressure. The total revenue growth for FY24Q2 is expected to approach double digits, with an adjusted net profit of 4.4 billion RMB [6][9]. Financial Summary - The adjusted revenue forecast for Kuaishou for FY2024 and FY2025 is set at 127.6 billion RMB and 141.7 billion RMB, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 12.5% and 11.0%. The adjusted net profit for the same periods is projected to be 18.5 billion RMB and 25.1 billion RMB, indicating year-on-year growth of 78% and 36% [7][9]. - For FY24Q2, Kuaishou is expected to achieve revenue of 30.4 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%. Online marketing revenue is anticipated to reach 17.3 billion RMB, up 21% year-on-year, while live streaming revenue is projected at 8.7 billion RMB, down 13% year-on-year [9][10]. - The gross margin is expected to reach 54.2%, with an adjusted net profit of 4.4 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 63% [9][10]. User Engagement Metrics - The report estimates that Kuaishou's daily active users (DAU) will reach 393 million in FY24Q2, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, while monthly active users (MAU) are expected to hit 690 million, up 2.4% year-on-year. The average daily usage time per user is projected to be around 124 minutes [9][10]. Business Segments - The online marketing segment is expected to drive revenue growth, with a forecast of 17.3 billion RMB for FY24Q2, primarily supported by internal advertising revenue and a recovery in external circulation [9][10]. - Other business revenues are projected to reach 4.4 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 29%. During the 618 shopping festival in 2024, the gross merchandise volume (GMV) for e-commerce is expected to grow by 16% [10].