长川科技:2024年半年报预告点评:业绩大幅增长,下游景气复苏+产品线不断拓展

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][4] Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, projecting a range of 200-230 million yuan for the first half of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 876.62%-1023.12%. For Q2 alone, the net profit is expected to be between 196-226 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 151.28%-189.74% [3] - The company is benefiting from a moderate recovery in the integrated circuit industry and a notable increase in customer demand in niche markets, leading to a substantial rise in revenue. The expansion of the product line in the integrated circuit testing sector has contributed to a steady increase in market share [3] - The company is positioned as a platform enterprise in semiconductor testing equipment, with ongoing growth opportunities through both organic and external expansion. Key areas of growth include: - Testing machines, where the company has achieved a leading level in analog testing machines and is well-positioned to expand market share in the digital testing machine segment, which is approximately 6-7 times the market size of analog machines [3] - Sorting machines, where the company has become a rare domestic supplier and has completed the acquisition of Changyi Technology, achieving full coverage of gravity, transfer, and turret sorting machines [3] - Probe stations, with successful development of the CP12 product and increased focus on this area expected to contribute to performance growth in 2023 [3] - AOI, where the acquisition of Singapore's STI is expected to provide strong support for optical technology challenges and facilitate entry into the supply chains of international semiconductor companies [3] Financial Forecasts - The company forecasts net profits of 470 million yuan, 770 million yuan, and 930 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, corresponding to P/E ratios of 43, 26, and 22 times [4] - Revenue projections for the company are 2.826 billion yuan in 2024, 3.409 billion yuan in 2025, and 3.822 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 59.19%, 20.65%, and 12.11% respectively [2][4]