TFC(300394) 华泰证券·2024-07-18 03:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing demand for AI technologies, leading to significant growth in both active and passive product lines. The forecasted net profit for the first half of 2024 is projected to be between 630 million to 677 million RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 167% to 187% [2][3]. - The report anticipates a continued high growth trajectory for the company, driven by the increasing demand for high-speed optical devices due to the global expansion of data centers and AI computing power [4][5]. Summary by Relevant Sections Earnings Forecast - The company expects a net profit of 3.51 to 3.98 billion RMB for Q2 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 144% to 177% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 26% to 43% [2][3]. - The adjusted net profit forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are set at 1.534 billion, 2.237 billion, and 2.923 billion RMB respectively, up from previous estimates of 1.401 billion, 1.874 billion, and 2.391 billion RMB [5][6]. Revenue and Profitability - The company’s revenue is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 3.674 billion, 5.619 billion, and 7.653 billion RMB for 2024 to 2026, marking growth rates of 89.52%, 52.94%, and 36.19% respectively [6][11]. - The report highlights a strong increase in the company's operating profit margins, with a forecasted net profit margin of 42.04% for 2024 [11]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - The company is positioned as a leader in the optical device sector, benefiting from its deep technological and process expertise. It has successfully integrated into the supply chains of major global clients [4][5]. - The anticipated introduction of 1.6T optical modules is expected to further enhance the company's market position and contribute to revenue growth [4]. Valuation - The target price for the company's stock is set at 124.59 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 45x for 2024, compared to the industry average PE of 32x [2][5].