渤海租赁：全球租赁巨头二次启航

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 2.56 RMB [7] Core Views - The company focuses on aircraft and container leasing, with 80% of its revenue coming from aircraft leasing and nearly 20% from container leasing in 2023 [4] - The company has a leading position in the global leasing market, with 458 aircraft orders, ranking first in the industry [4] - The company's financial performance is expected to improve due to the widening of leasing net interest margins, driven by rising aircraft rents and potential Fed rate cuts [4] Company Overview - The company has transitioned from an industrial leasing company to a global leasing giant through acquisitions of high-quality overseas leasing assets such as Seaco, Cronos, Avolon, and CIT [4] - The company's actual controller changed from the Hainan Cihang Foundation to no actual controller after the restructuring of HNA Group in 2022 [4] - The company's revenue structure is dominated by aircraft leasing, which accounted for 80% of total revenue in 2023, while container leasing contributed nearly 20% [4] Aircraft Leasing - The global aircraft leasing market has seen significant growth, with the fleet size expanding from 2,850 in 1980 to 23,561 in 2023, and the leasing penetration rate increasing from 2.4% to 51.3% [4] - The company's subsidiary, Avolon, has a fleet value of $20.82 billion and a fleet size of 576 aircraft, ranking 4th and 3rd globally, respectively [4] - The company has 458 aircraft orders, the highest in the industry, and is expected to benefit from the ongoing supply-demand imbalance in the aircraft market [4] Container Leasing - The global container leasing market is highly concentrated, with the top five companies holding 84.8% of the market share [4] - The company is the third-largest container leasing company globally, with a fleet size of 4.087 million CEU and over 750 customers [4] - The company's container leasing business is expected to benefit from the cyclical recovery in the shipping industry [4] Financial Performance - The company's revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 5.78% from 2024 to 2026, with net profit growing at a CAGR of 18.53% over the same period [5] - The company's PB ratio is currently 0.53x, lower than the industry average of 0.85x, indicating potential for valuation upside [5] - The company's net interest margin is expected to widen due to rising aircraft rents and potential Fed rate cuts, which will improve its financial performance [4] Industry Outlook - The global aircraft leasing market is expected to continue growing, driven by increasing demand for new aircraft and the replacement of aging fleets [4] - The container leasing market is also expected to grow, with the penetration rate projected to increase from 48.5% in 2023 to 52.6% by 2027 [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from these industry trends due to its strong market position and extensive global network [4]