GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2024-07-23 08:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Group [2][4]. Core Views - JD Group's revenue is expected to grow at a rate higher than the overall retail sales growth in China, which was reported at 3.7% year-on-year for the first half of 2024 [1]. - The company is projected to achieve a non-GAAP operating profit margin of 3.5% and a non-GAAP net profit margin of 3.3% in Q2 2024, reflecting improved profitability due to strict cost control and a higher contribution from large supermarkets [1]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are set at 1,137.2 billion, 1,198.9 billion, and 1,261.1 billion RMB, respectively, with a consistent growth rate of 5% year-on-year [2][3]. Revenue and Profitability - JD Group's revenue for Q2 2024 is expected to be 2,894 million RMB, with a projected growth rate of 1% compared to Q1 2024 [9]. - The company anticipates significant growth in daily necessities and supermarket categories due to a low base effect from the previous year, with expected high single-digit growth in Q2 2024 [1]. - The non-GAAP net profit for 2024 is forecasted to be 37.4 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [3][8]. Financial Metrics - The report outlines key financial metrics, including a projected non-GAAP EPS of 11.8 RMB for 2024, increasing to 14.5 RMB by 2026 [3]. - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 10.9 in 2022 to 6.7 by 2026, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [3][8]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 14.1% in 2022 to 15.9% by 2026, reflecting enhanced operational efficiency [8].