Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral, with a target price of HKD 2.02, indicating a potential downside of 5.6% from the current price of HKD 2.14 [1][3][9]. Core Insights - The company is expected to experience a 7.9% year-on-year decline in profit for the first half of the year, with a projected profit of RMB 1.64 billion. This decline is attributed to a 4% decrease in wind power generation due to lower wind speeds, although solar power generation increased by 58% due to new installations [1][2]. - The report anticipates a slight reduction in electricity generation forecasts for 2024 and 2025, with expected growth rates of 1.3% and 6.2%, respectively. This adjustment reflects the need for the company to accelerate new installations to maintain growth amid declining utilization rates of existing projects [2][7]. - The company's net debt ratio is lower than its peers, providing room for potential increases in installations or dividends. The expected dividend payout ratio of 23% is below the industry average of 30-50%, suggesting potential for higher dividends if cash flow remains stable [2][3]. Financial Summary - For the fiscal year ending December 31, 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 12.798 billion, a slight decrease from 2023. Net profit is expected to decline by 2.3% to RMB 2.702 billion, with earnings per share (EPS) forecasted at RMB 0.30 [3][10]. - The company’s financial metrics indicate a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 6.6 for 2024, with a projected dividend yield of 3.4% [3][10]. - The company’s total installed capacity is expected to remain stable, with wind power capacity at 13,831 MW and solar power capacity at 3,388 MW for 2024 [7][10].
大唐新能源：预期上半年业绩偏弱，较低的净负债率仍有潜在利好