Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Sands China Limited, with a target price adjusted from HKD 28.5 to HKD 19.5, corresponding to a 10x EV/EBITDA for 2025 [10]. Core Insights - Sands China's Q2 2024 net revenue was USD 1,754 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.7% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3.1%. Adjusted EBITDA was USD 561 million, up 3.7% year-on-year but down 8% quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 73.3% of 2019 levels [1][9]. - The company's gaming revenue forecasts for 2024, 2025, and 2026 have been revised downwards to HKD 535 billion, HKD 604 billion, and HKD 693 billion, respectively, indicating recoveries to 80%, 90%, and 103% of 2019 levels [9][10]. - The report highlights that the recovery of VIP and mass market gaming revenues is lagging behind the industry, with VIP revenue at USD 179 million, recovering to 32% of 2019 levels, compared to the industry average of 38% [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q2 2024 adjusted EBITDA margin was 32%, lower than the margins of 36.1%, 33.2%, and 33.7% in Q2 2019, Q2 2023, and Q1 2024, respectively [1][9]. - The company did not declare dividends for Q2 2024 due to ongoing performance challenges [9]. Revenue Breakdown - Q2 2024 gaming revenue was USD 1,710 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.8% and flat quarter-on-quarter, recovering to 81.2% of Q2 2019 levels, surpassing the industry recovery of 77% [2]. - Mass market gaming revenue was USD 1,365 million, recovering to 98% of 2019 levels, while slot machine revenue reached USD 166 million, recovering to 103.3% of 2019 levels [2]. Operational Challenges - The ongoing property renovations are expected to impact revenue in the short term, with the Venetian's performance being notably affected [3][10]. - The company plans to invest at least USD 4.5 billion in Macau by 2032, with 93% allocated to non-gaming projects [3]. Visitor Trends - Visitor numbers to Macau in the first half of 2024 exceeded expectations, reaching 16.72 million, which is 82.4% of 2019 levels, with mainland tourists being the primary contributors [4]. Future Projections - The report projects that the gaming gross revenue (GGR) for the industry is expected to recover to 79% and 86% of 2019 levels in 2024 and 2025, respectively [4]. - Sands China's EBITDA is forecasted to recover to 75%, 85%, and 100% of 2019 levels in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [10].
金沙中国有限公司：VIP及中场收入恢复不及行业，物业翻新或导致份额持续流失