三全食品：面米龙头，提质增效焕新机

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the company, with a target price range of 13.35-15.13 yuan for 2024, based on a PE multiple of 15-17x [27][107] Core Views - The company is a leading player in the frozen rice and flour products industry, with strong brand recognition and a nationwide production and distribution network [35] - Profitability has improved significantly in recent years, with non-GAAP net profit margin stabilizing at 8%-10% [42] - The company has outperformed peers in key metrics such as gross margin, expense ratios, ROE, and per capita revenue/profit [1][60] - Product mix optimization and R&D efficiency improvements are driving growth, with the proportion of prepared foods increasing [13][21][24] - Channel structure optimization has led to higher dealer sales and lower direct sales, improving profitability [26][73] Business Performance - Revenue CAGR was 14.06% from 2004-2023, with non-GAAP net profit CAGR of 24.25% [25] - 2023 revenue breakdown: frozen rice/flour products 82.62%, prepared foods 15.25%, chilled/short-shelf-life products 1.35% [21] - Retail/innovation market accounted for 79.73% of 2023 revenue, with catering market at 20.27% [68] - Regional sales mix in 2023: North 44.32%, West 20.29%, East 18.7%, South 16.7% [55] Financial Projections - 2024-2026 revenue growth projected at 2.4%, 3.8%, 5.2% respectively [28] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at 0.89, 0.94, 1.00 yuan [27][28] - Gross margin expected to remain stable at around 25.3%-25.4% [28][84] - ROE projected to decline slightly from 16.7% in 2024 to 16.4% in 2026 [28] Competitive Advantages - Strong brand portfolio with "Sanquan" and "Longfeng" brands [35] - Extensive production and cold chain network across China [35] - Experienced management team with over 20 years in the industry [36] - Superior operational efficiency compared to peers, with higher per capita revenue and profit [1][60] Growth Drivers - Continuous product innovation, with new product launches targeting specific consumer segments and usage scenarios [40][48][52] - Optimization of sales channels, with increasing proportion of dealer sales [26][73] - Focus on catering market expansion and product mix upgrades [21][67] - Improved R&D efficiency and cost control measures [24][60][76]