MEITUAN(03690) 华泰证券·2024-07-28 08:02Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (3690 HK) is "Buy" with a target price of HKD 150.70 [23][30]. Core Insights - The report anticipates that Meituan will demonstrate resilience in profitability despite external pressures, with projected revenue for Q2 2024 reaching RMB 79.92 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [30]. - The company is expected to achieve a non-IFRS net profit of RMB 8.92 billion for Q2 2024, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter growth of 16.4% [30]. - Revenue forecasts for 2024 to 2026 are projected at RMB 325.2 billion, RMB 383.7 billion, and RMB 450.1 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.5%, 18.0%, and 17.3% [30]. Financial Summary - Revenue for 2022 was RMB 219.96 billion, with projections of RMB 276.75 billion for 2023 and RMB 325.18 billion for 2024 [7]. - EBITDA is expected to grow from RMB 3.95 billion in 2022 to RMB 22.63 billion in 2023, reaching RMB 42.17 billion in 2024 [7]. - The net profit forecast for 2024 is RMB 28.09 billion, with an EPS of RMB 4.51 [7]. Valuation - The target price of HKD 150.70 is derived from a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation, with the home delivery business valued at HKD 81.2 based on a 20x PE for 2024, and the in-store business valued at HKD 55.3 [26][27]. - New business segments are valued at HKD 14.3, reflecting a shift towards reducing losses and focusing on high-quality growth strategies [27]. Market Position - The report highlights that Meituan's competitive position is expected to strengthen through synergies between its home delivery and in-store services, particularly with the introduction of the "Shen Membership" program [31][32]. - The in-store segment is projected to see a GTV growth of 35% year-on-year in Q2 2024, with revenue growth of 22% [32].