“出海”浮沉三十年：日本农林中金银行大额预亏探究

Group 1: Financial Performance and Strategy - Norinchukin Bank's expected loss for the fiscal year 2024 is projected to reach ¥1.5 trillion, nearly 23.6 times its net profit of ¥636 billion in 2023[43] - The bank's total assets as of 2023 stand at ¥99.8 trillion, ranking it fifth in Japan's banking sector[44] - During the fiscal years 2012-2021, Norinchukin Bank's asset scale expanded by 46.9%, surpassing the average growth of Japanese banks by 8.7 percentage points[90] Group 2: Historical Context and Market Trends - The period from 1996 to 2011 marked a "bond era" in Japan, where public sector debt increased by 120%, and the macro leverage ratio rose from 84.7% to 191.9%[8] - From 2002 to 2011, Norinchukin Bank's credit assets shrank by 35.4%, while its securities assets nearly doubled, growing by 101.5%[10] - In the current U.S. interest rate hike cycle (2022-present), Norinchukin Bank has increased its short-duration asset holdings by 27.9%[24] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Risks - The bank's overseas bond investments accounted for 41.8% of its securities portfolio, significantly higher than the industry average of 12.8%[60] - As of 2023, Norinchukin Bank's overseas assets made up 52% of its investment portfolio, indicating a strong focus on international markets[79] - The bank's unrealized losses from overseas bond investments have escalated from ¥1.04 trillion to ¥-1.77 trillion between 2021 and 2023, with bond assets contributing to a loss of ¥2.19 trillion[25] Group 4: Future Outlook - The bank is expected to shift back towards domestic credit business as Japan's economic conditions improve, with a potential recovery in private sector credit demand[26] - Norinchukin Bank plans to reduce its interest rate risk exposure and increase its credit risk exposure to diversify its investment strategy[37]