JEP(000875) 华泰证券·2024-07-31 01:03Investment Rating and Target Price - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.06 [3] - The target price is based on a 1.3x PB multiple for 2024, considering the company's profitability is better than the industry average [56] Core Financial Performance - In 1H24, the company's coal power and heating revenue decreased by 0.6% YoY, with coal power revenue down 7.2% and heating revenue up 28% [3] - The gross margin for coal power and heating combined improved to 15.7%, up 2.5 percentage points YoY, driven by lower coal prices and increased auxiliary service income [3] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in 1H24 increased by 22% YoY, with 2Q24 net profit up 21% YoY [8] - The company plans to distribute an interim dividend of RMB 326 million, representing 29.8% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [56] Green Energy and Hydrogen Business - The company's green energy revenue grew YoY, with wind power revenue up 3.3% and photovoltaic revenue up 1.1% in 1H24 [28] - Wind power gross margin improved to 54.7%, up 0.3 percentage points YoY, while photovoltaic gross margin declined to 45.1%, down 2.4 percentage points due to increased market-based trading [28] - The company is developing the Da'an green hydrogen base, with the Da'an wind-solar-green hydrogen-ammonia integration project expected to be operational by 4Q24 [9] - The company has developed 3GWh of lead-carbon battery energy storage capacity and has over 10GWh of reserve projects, making it a leader in large-scale commercial development of lead-carbon battery energy storage [9] Financial Forecasts and Adjustments - The report forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 to be RMB 1.2 billion, RMB 1.45 billion, and RMB 1.73 billion, respectively [56] - The company's EPS for 2024-2026 is expected to be RMB 0.43, RMB 0.52, and RMB 0.62, respectively [31] - The company's ROE is projected to increase from 9.49% in 2024 to 11.23% in 2026 [31] Industry and Peer Comparison - The company's green energy installed capacity accounted for 75.86% of total capacity as of June 2024, contributing 57% of net profit in 1H24 [28] - The company's PE ratio for 2024 is 11.9x, lower than the industry average of 13.8x, and its PB ratio is 1.1x, also below the industry average of 1.23x [36] Revenue and Profit Breakdown - The company's revenue structure shows that wind power and photovoltaic accounted for a significant portion of total revenue, with wind power contributing RMB 3.6 billion and photovoltaic contributing RMB 4.7 billion in 2024E [14] - The gross margin for wind power is expected to remain stable at around 50%, while photovoltaic gross margin is projected to decline slightly to 39% by 2026 [14]