Enphase(ENPH) 兴业证券·2024-07-31 03:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Enphase Energy, suggesting that the stock is expected to outperform the market significantly [24]. Core Views - Enphase Energy is positioned as a leading player in the microinverter market, with expectations for performance improvement following a bottoming out in Q1 2024. The company is expected to benefit from increased shipment volumes and IRA subsidies in the second half of 2024. The long-term outlook remains positive due to its strong market position and brand advantages [23][24]. Financial Summary - Revenue: For 2023, the revenue is projected at 613 million, with a decrease of 5.3% year-on-year. A more substantial decline of 42.9% is anticipated in 2024, followed by a rebound with increases of 67.6% and 20.4% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [8][10]. - Gross Margin: The non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be 47.1% in 2023, improving to 50.9% by 2026 [8][10]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): The diluted non-GAAP EPS is projected to be 2.58 in 2024, then recovering to 5.35 in 2025 and 2026, respectively [8][10]. Operational Highlights - Inventory Management: The company successfully completed inventory destocking by the end of Q2 2024, with significant reductions in channel inventory over the previous quarters [23]. - Product Shipments: In Q2 2024, Enphase shipped 1.403 million microinverters, a year-on-year decrease of 73.0%, but a slight quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. The average power per unit increased by 6.3% year-on-year [23]. - Battery Storage: The company reported a significant increase in battery storage shipments, with 120.2 MWh shipped in Q2 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 46.1% [23]. Market Position - Enphase Energy is focusing on the U.S. market, leveraging its channel and brand advantages to maintain its leading position. The company is also expected to benefit from the growing demand for energy storage solutions, particularly in California, due to regulatory changes [23].