BUD APAC(01876) 光大证券·2024-08-04 05:31Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [6] Core Views - Eastern region shows strong growth momentum, partially offsetting pressure in the Chinese market [2] - Western region faces increased pressure in Q2 2024 [6] - Beer raw material cost pressures are gradually easing, with potential profit improvement under a low base [8] Performance Summary Revenue and EBITDA - 24H1 revenue: USD 3,399 million, organic growth -4.3% [6] - 24H1 EBITDA: USD 1,100 million, organic growth -1.0% [6] - 24Q2 revenue: USD 1,756 million, organic growth -7.8% [6] - 24Q2 EBITDA: USD 528 million, organic growth -6.2% [6] Volume and Price - 24H1 volume: 4,657,300 tons, -6.2% YoY [6] - 24Q2 volume: 2,545,800 tons, -7.3% YoY [6] - 24H1 price per ton: +2.0% YoY [6] - 24Q2 price per ton: -0.5% YoY [6] Regional Performance - Asia West: 24Q2 revenue -13.2%, EBITDA -16.3%, volume -9.0%, price per ton -4.6% [6] - Asia East: 24Q2 revenue +21.2%, EBITDA +69.6%, volume +6.0%, price per ton +14.4% [6] - China: 24H1 revenue -9.4%, EBITDA -8.3%, volume -8.5%, price per ton -1.0% [7] Cost and Profit - 24H1 cost per hectoliter: -0.6% [8] - 24H1 gross margin: 51.5%, +1.27 ppts YoY [6] - 24Q2 gross margin: 51.5%, +0.57 ppts YoY [6] Financial Forecast Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue: USD 6,873 million, +0.3% YoY [9] - 2025E revenue: USD 7,313 million, +6.4% YoY [9] - 2026E revenue: USD 7,754 million, +6.0% YoY [9] - 2024E net profit: USD 936 million, +9.9% YoY [9] - 2025E net profit: USD 1,039 million, +10.9% YoY [9] - 2026E net profit: USD 1,144 million, +10.2% YoY [9] Valuation - 2024E PE: 17x [9] - 2025E PE: 15x [9] - 2026E PE: 14x [9] Market Data - Total shares: 13,243 million [3] - Market cap: HKD 124,355 million [3] - 1-year low/high: HKD 8.68/18.34 [3] - 3-month turnover rate: 7.22% [3] Related Reports - High base pressure in the western market, structural upgrades progressing smoothly—Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) 2024 Q1 earnings review (2024-05-09) [5] - Smooth structural upgrades in China, Korean tariff audit fees drag down after-tax profit—Budweiser APAC (1876.HK) 2023 annual report review (2024-03-01) [5]