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许昌智能:北交所首次覆盖报告:光伏消纳矛盾凸显,配电侧+用电侧建设带来增长机遇

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3]. Core Insights - The company, Xuchang Intelligent, is positioned to benefit from the growing demand for new construction in the distribution and consumption sides of the power sector, driven by the increasing challenges of photovoltaic consumption [3][4]. - The company reported a revenue of 0.70 billion yuan in Q1 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 23.46%, with a net profit of 1.428 million yuan, up 142.38% [3]. - The projected net profits for 2024-2026 are estimated at 54.28 million yuan, 64.23 million yuan, and 76.82 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.33, 0.39, and 0.46 yuan per share [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Layout of New Energy Business - Xuchang Intelligent focuses on the research, design, assembly, sales, and service of smart power distribution products and new energy systems, with applications in various sectors including municipal engineering and transportation [12]. - The company has developed an integrated solar-storage-charging system, enhancing its capabilities in county-level solar development [5][12]. - As of September 2023, the company has orders totaling 6.81 billion yuan, with expected revenue of 7.42 billion yuan, indicating a significant improvement in order structure towards new energy business [5][12]. 2. Photovoltaic Consumption Challenges - The rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic installations in China has led to increased costs due to the instability of solar power generation, prompting the need for enhanced consumption solutions [4]. - The report highlights that the State Grid and Southern Power Grid are expected to invest over 3 trillion yuan in distribution network construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [4]. - The new energy storage market is projected to reach a cumulative scale of 48.5 GW by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 53.3% from 2022 to 2026 [4]. 3. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 586 million yuan in 2023 to 952 million yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of 18.9% [6]. - The net profit is expected to increase from 46 million yuan in 2023 to 77 million yuan in 2026, with a corresponding improvement in profit margins [6]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong order backlog and its strategic positioning in the new energy sector as key factors supporting its growth outlook [5][6].