Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is transitioning from overheating to a balanced growth phase, with no signs of recession detected[4] - June non-farm payrolls increased by 206,000, surpassing the expected 190,000, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, above the anticipated 4.0%[5] - Inflation data shows June CPI rose by 3.0%, better than the expected 3.1%, indicating a downward trend in inflation[8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve signaled a potential "preventive rate cut" following its July 31 meeting, with a 100% market expectation for a 25 basis point cut in September[35][37] - The current federal funds rate is maintained at 5.25-5.5%[35] Market Trends and Predictions - The S&P 500 index has experienced a two-week decline, attributed to factors such as the presidential election, economic slowdown, and disappointing earnings from major tech stocks[4][21] - The Sahm Rule indicator for June is at 0.43, close to the 0.5 threshold that signals a potential recession, raising market concerns[13] Consumer and Retail Insights - Retail sales in June reached 703.09 billion, indicating resilience in consumer spending despite high interest rates[11] - Consumer confidence index dropped to 66.4 in July, influenced by high prices affecting household financial outlooks[41] Political Landscape - Trump leads in betting odds for the 2024 presidential election with a 55.6% probability, while Harris stands at 38.4%[28][29] - The outcome of the election is expected to hinge on key swing states, which will determine the allocation of electoral votes[28]
美股策略：大选、降息，谁将主导市场？
艾德证券期货·2024-08-05 06:30