CTS Logistics(603128) 中国银河·2024-08-06 02:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Viewpoints - Huamao Logistics is a leading third-party cross-border logistics service provider in China, actively expanding its business in freight forwarding and cross-border e-commerce logistics, while upgrading its service structure to a full-chain service model [1][11]. - The company's freight forwarding business is expected to benefit from rising shipping prices due to global geopolitical tensions, contributing to strong profit elasticity [2]. - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing significant growth, driven by the emergence of "Four Little Dragons" in overseas markets, enhancing the demand for cross-border logistics services [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Established in 1984 and listed in 2012, Huamao Logistics is a subsidiary of China Logistics Group and ranks among the top 50 global freight forwarders, holding the 10th and 15th positions in sea and air freight forwarding, respectively [1][11]. - As of March 31, 2024, the company has a market capitalization of 8.692 billion yuan and total assets of 9.351 billion yuan, with a logistics network covering over 160 countries and regions [1]. Freight Forwarding Business - The traditional freight forwarding business is likely to benefit from price increases in shipping, with the SCFI index rising by 235% year-on-year as of July 26, 2024 [2]. - The company is implementing a direct customer strategy to enhance its service coverage and profitability in the freight forwarding sector [2][19]. Cross-Border E-Commerce - The cross-border e-commerce logistics business has seen substantial growth, with revenue contributions increasing from 13.46% in 2021 to 15.30% in 2022 [3]. - The company has made significant investments in acquisitions and capacity building in the cross-border e-commerce sector since 2019, with expectations for continued growth in this area [3][81]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to reach 16.288 billion yuan in 2024, 18.068 billion yuan in 2025, and 20.099 billion yuan in 2026, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.50%, 10.93%, and 11.24%, respectively [3][104]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 749 million yuan in 2024, 865 million yuan in 2025, and 1.010 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting growth rates of 21.36%, 15.58%, and 16.69% [3][104]. Shareholder Returns - The company has consistently focused on enhancing shareholder returns, with a cash dividend of 432 million yuan in 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.76% [95].